Ethanol Round II: The Glut.
Sunday, September 30th, 2007Today the New York times has an article on the collapse in Ethanol prices. The article is a well written overview of the industry and the current impact and reasons for a collapse in the prices. I’m not going to go through all the points the article makes, go read it here — its really worth it. I’m going to talk about what I think is the most important challenge facing the ethanol industry, the federal government and the farmers who are growing the corn and producing the ethanol.
First off most people don’t understand how fragmented the industry is. Most ethanol producing plants, or at least a good majority of them, are owned and operated by farmer cooperatives. This means that the industry has a lot of room to consolidate which will lead to larger margins and less volatility. In the past 2 years, ethanol plants have sprouted (pun) up in hundreds of places throughout the midwest — these plants are relatively inexpensive to build and the technology is well tested. The real issue however is one of transportation. As you can see production is not a problem — there is lots of corn out there for ethanol and there are lots of people turning it into ethanol, but there are not a lot of people getting it from point a to point b. Ethanol, unlike oil and Natural Gas, is difficult to transport — its an organic good and has a sort of sell by date by which it has to be blended into oil if that is the final destination.
Interestingly this transport issue is a common one in the Energy industry. The electrical grid is suffering from the same lack of underinvestment. Why does this dilemna exist? Well most transport networks — for ethanol (pipelines), for electricity (transmission lines), require massive amounts of capital expenditure, with a lot of sunk costs. I’m not sure about this, but as we saw with the bridge collapse this summer in Minnesota, the federal government has stepped back on its responsibility to build and maintain our networks (roads, grids…).
The article makes an interesting point about the likelihood of the federal government having to expand its subsidies to ethanol farmers to protect them during this glut in the market — maybe instead of funding the expansion of an industry already in an overproduction stage, maybe they could pour that money into getting rid of the transport bottleneck. This will allow ethanol to reach end users for its traditional uses of being blended into oil or as a substitute for MBTE, and potentially allow for continued expansion of our inclusion of ethanol into other energy systems.
Ah but what about the effects of increased ethanol production of food prices? on the environment? I’ve already written about my dislike of ethanol as the ’solution’. I don’t think its a solution, i think its a delay mechanisms, but I also see that if we can leverage ethanol through an improved transportation network then people can be allowed to be more creative with the uses and applications of ethanol. Its a complicated situation for sure, but the federal government will continue to be involved and I just hope its in a more constructive way then just giving farmers a check because the market for their product isn’t strong.
Original post by mysustainablefuture

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